DR Congo: Key drivers of insecurity and humanitarian crises in eastern DRC - M23 Scenario, July 2024

ReliefWeb: Updates by Country 04.07.2024 22:20 Country: Democratic Republic of the Congo Source: Mercy Corps Please refer to the attached file. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In this report, the Crisis Analysis Team - DR Congo presents its predictive model for 2024 of the second half of 2024, in relation to the M23 crisis. This report is part of a series of predictive reports on high-impact crises as identified and classified by the CAT team in the first half of 2024. Despite the multitude of different armed actors, including national and international nonstate armed actors, the three crises identified for analysis were the M23 crisis, the CODECO crisis and the ADF crisis. This report is the first in the series and contains our predictive analysis of the M23 crisis over the next four months. The report is divided into three parts: methodology and limitations of the analytical framework; an overview and analysis of the current situation and its impact on the humanitarian field and civil protection; and a detailed analysis of two scenarios, one the most likely scenario and one the worst-case scenario in terms of instability.

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